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Question 3205: Conditional Probability in a Finite Weighted Model

On this page
  1. Original question and givens
  2. Definition and scope
  3. Step-by-step derivation
  4. Reverse checks
  5. Result
  6. This question review and source binding

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R0005-03205 · q-20261003-advance-20261004-r07-conditional-probability-0005

Original question and givens

The nonempty finite sample space is S={-8, -7, -6, -5}, with event family F=𝒫(S). In the displayed order of S, the nonnegative normalized weights are [1/(13), 1/(13), 6/(13), 5/(13)], summing exactly to one. A={-6, -5}, B={-8, -6, -5}, and P(B)>0. Compute P(A|B) exactly as a reduced fraction with positive denominator, without assuming equiprobability.

  • G001 — The nonempty finite sample space is S={-8, -7, -6, -5}, with event family F=𝒫(S). In the displayed order of S, the nonnegative normalized weights are [1/(13), 1/(13), 6/(13), 5/(13)], summing exactly to one. A={-6, -5}, B={-8, -6, -5}, and P(B)>0. Compute P(A|B) exactly as a reduced fraction with positive denominator, without assuming equiprobability.

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

Step-by-step derivation

S001 · implies

Before

S={-8, -7, -6, -5};A={-6, -5};B={-8, -6, -5};F=𝒫(S)

After

events are declared subsets;conditioning needs P(B)>0

Conditions: none

𝒫(S) is the full event powerset,not a probability value.A nonempty event may have probability0.When checking B's eligibility,do not invent an unspecified A.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: conditional_model_domain · Uses: G001

S002 · implies

Before

A={-6, -5};B={-8, -6, -5}

After

A∩B={-6, -5}

Conditions: none

The intersection keeps outcomes in both events;neither a union nor independence is assumed.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: explicit_event_intersection · Uses: G001, S001

S003 · calculation

Before

total weight numerator := sum(1, 1, 6, 5)

After

total weight numerator = 13

Conditions: none

Nonnegative weights must sum to the common positive denominator to give total probability1.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S002

S004 · implies

Before

[[-8, 1], [-7, 1], [-6, 6], [-5, 5]]

After

weights sum to 13;normalization verified

Conditions: none

Weights align with the original S order;do not sort S while leaving weights in their old positions.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: weight_alignment_and_normalization · Uses: G001, S003

S005 · calculation

Before

B weight numerator := sum(1, 6, 5)

After

B weight numerator = 12

Conditions: none

Sum aligned weights over the event;zero-mass outcomes do not become positive mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S004

S006 · calculation

Before

B probability mass := div(12, 13)

After

B probability mass = 12/13

Conditions: none

Divide by the common positive denominator to obtain exact probability.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S005

S007 · calculation

Before

A∩B weight numerator := sum(6, 5)

After

A∩B weight numerator = 11

Conditions: none

Sum aligned weights over the event;zero-mass outcomes do not become positive mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S006

S008 · calculation

Before

A∩B probability mass := div(11, 13)

After

A∩B probability mass = 11/13

Conditions: none

Divide by the common positive denominator to obtain exact probability.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S007

S009 · calculation

Before

P(A|B) := div(11/13, 12/13)

After

P(A|B) = 11/12

Conditions: none

By definition divide the intersection probability by positive P(B);do not assume it equals P(A)P(B).

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S008

S010 · implies

Before

P(A∩B)=11/13;P(B)=12/13>0

After

P(A|B)=11/12

Conditions: none

Use the ratio only with the checked positive conditioning mass;a zero-mass intersection can validly yield conditional value0.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: conditional_ratio_positive_guard · Uses: G001, S009

Reverse checks

  • S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute P(A|B) with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute A∩B probability mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute A∩B weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute B probability mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute B weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute total weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.

Result

11/12

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.

Source hashes and review receipts
  • input commit: 0f7be61e2c22317a4075561dc822c87d881a50db
  • original question SHA-256: f2b344fd32978bd759aa83cd2012611db1795405d738d59f8c45f0a52a4bf752
  • candidate record SHA-256: 51161e07c00b034c4f0033dc959436a13c1d1e49fab82392c4a88f392d115bad
  • semantic review receipt SHA-256: 5d74de11610ebc6037a4fc9946d77154d4ed18389f8f0feeb823148b6320c4c2
  • question-first witness SHA-256: 1fba4ab0f13c2cfcc4d9fdebe492c442d43dd45700394a443daa28f333355ed9
  • Lean: NOT_RUN · human review: NOT_PERFORMED
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