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Question 3218: Conditional Probability in a Finite Weighted Model

On this page
  1. Original question and givens
  2. Definition and scope
  3. Step-by-step derivation
  4. Reverse checks
  5. Result
  6. This question review and source binding

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R0005-03218 · q-20261003-advance-20261004-r07-conditional-probability-0018

Original question and givens

The nonempty finite sample space is S={5, 6, 7, 8}, with event family F=𝒫(S). In the displayed order of S, the nonnegative normalized weights are [2/(26), 2/(26), 4/(26), 18/(26)], summing exactly to one. A={5, 6}, B={6, 7}, and P(B)>0. Compute P(A|B) exactly as a reduced fraction with positive denominator, without assuming equiprobability.

  • G001 — The nonempty finite sample space is S={5, 6, 7, 8}, with event family F=𝒫(S). In the displayed order of S, the nonnegative normalized weights are [2/(26), 2/(26), 4/(26), 18/(26)], summing exactly to one. A={5, 6}, B={6, 7}, and P(B)>0. Compute P(A|B) exactly as a reduced fraction with positive denominator, without assuming equiprobability.

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

Step-by-step derivation

S001 · implies

Before

S={5, 6, 7, 8};A={5, 6};B={6, 7};F=𝒫(S)

After

events are declared subsets;conditioning needs P(B)>0

Conditions: none

𝒫(S) is the full event powerset,not a probability value.A nonempty event may have probability0.When checking B's eligibility,do not invent an unspecified A.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: conditional_model_domain · Uses: G001

S002 · implies

Before

A={5, 6};B={6, 7}

After

A∩B={6}

Conditions: none

The intersection keeps outcomes in both events;neither a union nor independence is assumed.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: explicit_event_intersection · Uses: G001, S001

S003 · calculation

Before

total weight numerator := sum(2, 2, 4, 18)

After

total weight numerator = 26

Conditions: none

Nonnegative weights must sum to the common positive denominator to give total probability1.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S002

S004 · implies

Before

[[5, 2], [6, 2], [7, 4], [8, 18]]

After

weights sum to 26;normalization verified

Conditions: none

Weights align with the original S order;do not sort S while leaving weights in their old positions.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: weight_alignment_and_normalization · Uses: G001, S003

S005 · calculation

Before

B weight numerator := sum(2, 4)

After

B weight numerator = 6

Conditions: none

Sum aligned weights over the event;zero-mass outcomes do not become positive mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S004

S006 · calculation

Before

B probability mass := div(6, 26)

After

B probability mass = 3/13

Conditions: none

Divide by the common positive denominator to obtain exact probability.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S005

S007 · calculation

Before

A∩B weight numerator := sum(2)

After

A∩B weight numerator = 2

Conditions: none

Sum aligned weights over the event;zero-mass outcomes do not become positive mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S006

S008 · calculation

Before

A∩B probability mass := div(2, 26)

After

A∩B probability mass = 1/13

Conditions: none

Divide by the common positive denominator to obtain exact probability.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S007

S009 · calculation

Before

P(A|B) := div(1/13, 3/13)

After

P(A|B) = 1/3

Conditions: none

By definition divide the intersection probability by positive P(B);do not assume it equals P(A)P(B).

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S008

S010 · implies

Before

P(A∩B)=1/13;P(B)=3/13>0

After

P(A|B)=1/3

Conditions: none

Use the ratio only with the checked positive conditioning mass;a zero-mass intersection can validly yield conditional value0.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: conditional_ratio_positive_guard · Uses: G001, S009

Reverse checks

  • S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute P(A|B) with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute A∩B probability mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute A∩B weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute B probability mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute B weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute total weight numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.

Result

1/3

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.

Source hashes and review receipts
  • input commit: 0f7be61e2c22317a4075561dc822c87d881a50db
  • original question SHA-256: 9c83f0f0e71bb47bcd675abdb1d500691858fa33d69513612eb403216a29c07f
  • candidate record SHA-256: dd3f5e27dc2b09e16b6525e81628199091af9db520dc2b4dd8ff7ba656be6d49
  • semantic review receipt SHA-256: 5d74de11610ebc6037a4fc9946d77154d4ed18389f8f0feeb823148b6320c4c2
  • question-first witness SHA-256: 1fba4ab0f13c2cfcc4d9fdebe492c442d43dd45700394a443daa28f333355ed9
  • Lean: NOT_RUN · human review: NOT_PERFORMED
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