Question 4141: Expectation Difference on a Shared Model

Original question and givens

S={0,…,2}, F=P(S), masses=[16, 2, 1], D=19, and w_i=mass_i/D. Masses are nonnegative and sum exactly to D; uniform weights are not assumed. X=[-15, 2, 16] in index order and Y=[1, -1, -15] on the same S and weights, with no independence premise. Find E[X]−E[Y], equivalently E[X−Y]. Use exact reduced fractions with positive denominators, retaining /1 for integers.

• G001 — S={0,…,2}, F=P(S), masses=[16, 2, 1], D=19, and w_i=mass_i/D. Masses are nonnegative and sum exactly to D; uniform weights are not assumed. X=[-15, 2, 16] in index order and Y=[1, -1, -15] on the same S and weights, with no independence premise. Find E[X]−E[Y], equivalently E[X−Y]. Use exact reduced fractions with positive denominators, retaining /1 for integers.

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

• mko-expectation

Step-by-step derivation

total mass numerator := sum(16, 2, 1)

total mass numerator = 19

indexed masses=[16, 2, 1];D=19

probabilities=[16/19, 2/19, 1/19]

X weighted numerator0 := mul(16, -15)

X weighted numerator0 = -240

X contribution0 := div(-240, 19)

X contribution0 = -240/19

X weighted numerator1 := mul(2, 2)

X weighted numerator1 = 4

X contribution1 := div(4, 19)

X contribution1 = 4/19

X weighted numerator2 := mul(1, 16)

X weighted numerator2 = 16

X contribution2 := div(16, 19)

X contribution2 = 16/19

X expectation := sum(-240/19, 4/19, 16/19)

X expectation = -220/19

Y weighted numerator0 := mul(16, 1)

Y weighted numerator0 = 16

Y contribution0 := div(16, 19)

Y contribution0 = 16/19

Y weighted numerator1 := mul(2, -1)

Y weighted numerator1 = -2

Y contribution1 := div(-2, 19)

Y contribution1 = -2/19

Y weighted numerator2 := mul(1, -15)

Y weighted numerator2 = -15

Y contribution2 := div(-15, 19)

Y contribution2 = -15/19

Y expectation := sum(16/19, -2/19, -15/19)

Y expectation = -1/19

difference of expectations := sub(-220/19, -1/19)

difference of expectations = -219/19

E[X]=-220/19;E[Y]=-1/19

E[X]−E[Y]=E[X−Y]=-219/19

Reverse checks

• S018 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S017 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute difference of expectations with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S016 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y expectation with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S015 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y contribution2 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S014 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y weighted numerator2 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S013 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y contribution1 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S012 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y weighted numerator1 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S011 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y contribution0 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute Y weighted numerator0 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X expectation with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X contribution2 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X weighted numerator2 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X contribution1 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X weighted numerator1 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X contribution0 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute X weighted numerator0 with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute total mass numerator with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.

Result

-219/19

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.