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Question 10729: One Time-Event Probability with Duplicate-Free Event Semantics

On this page
  1. Original question and givens
  2. Definition and scope
  3. Step-by-step derivation
  4. Reverse checks
  5. Result
  6. This question review and source binding

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R0020-10729 · q-20261013-advance-20261023-r06-discrete-stochastic-process-0054

Original question and givens

Use one common finite probability space specified by the complete distinct equal-horizon path list=[[3, 3, 4], [3, 4, 4], [4, 4, 3]] and aligned exact masses=[1/4, 1/4, 1/2]. Preserve the original path-mass pairing. A qualified joint path law has nonnegative masses summing exactly to 1. Time starts at 0. Marginals do not determine the joint law or Markov property; a finite horizon gives no stationarity, ergodicity or infinite-time extension. Use exact reduced rational outputs with positive denominators, omitting /1 for integers. Require a qualified law. time=0, event input=[4]. Give (time,sorted distinct event,probability that the path state at this time lies in it). Event labels outside the support remain in the event field but contribute no additional mass.

  • G001 — Use one common finite probability space specified by the complete distinct equal-horizon path list=[[3, 3, 4], [3, 4, 4], [4, 4, 3]] and aligned exact masses=[1/4, 1/4, 1/2]. Preserve the original path-mass pairing. A qualified joint path law has nonnegative masses summing exactly to 1. Time starts at 0. Marginals do not determine the joint law or Markov property; a finite horizon gives no stationarity, ergodicity or infinite-time extension. Use exact reduced rational outputs with positive denominators, omitting /1 for integers. Require a qualified law. time=0, event input=[4]. Give (time,sorted distinct event,probability that the path state at this time lies in it). Event labels outside the support remain in the event field but contribute no additional mass.

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

Step-by-step derivation

S001 · implies

Before

original support index=0;path=[3, 3, 4];raw mass=[1, 4]

After

aligned reduced mass=1/4

Conditions: none

Complete paths are distinct and share one positive horizon.Masses remain paired to original support indices.Reduce fractions only:do not sort paths or divide by a total to repair an unqualified candidate.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: path_mass_original_support_pairing · Uses: G001

S002 · implies

Before

original support index=1;path=[3, 4, 4];raw mass=[1, 4]

After

aligned reduced mass=1/4

Conditions: none

Complete paths are distinct and share one positive horizon.Masses remain paired to original support indices.Reduce fractions only:do not sort paths or divide by a total to repair an unqualified candidate.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: path_mass_original_support_pairing · Uses: G001, S001

S003 · implies

Before

original support index=2;path=[4, 4, 3];raw mass=[1, 2]

After

aligned reduced mass=1/2

Conditions: none

Complete paths are distinct and share one positive horizon.Masses remain paired to original support indices.Reduce fractions only:do not sort paths or divide by a total to repair an unqualified candidate.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: path_mass_original_support_pairing · Uses: G001, S002

S004 · calculation

Before

whole path-law mass sum := sum(1/4, 1/4, 1/2)

After

whole path-law mass sum = 1

Conditions: none

Compute exactly with this step's original roles and operands,without floating approximation or reordering source data.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S003

S005 · implies

Before

horizon=3;normalized aligned masses=[1/4, 1/4, 1/2]

After

all nonnegative=Yes;total=1;qualified joint law=Yes

Conditions: none

The qualification task may retain negative or unnormalized masses to report failure.Marginal/event/joint queries require the whole law nonnegative with total exactly1.A finite horizon establishes neither Markov behavior nor stationarity.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: whole_finite_joint_law_qualification · Uses: G001, S004

S006 · implies

Before

support index=0;time=0;state=3;aligned mass=1/4;event=[4]

After

event contains state=No;contribution=0

Conditions: none

Normalize the event as a set while retaining labels outside support.Each path contributes its original mass once;outside-support event labels add no invented mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: time_event_each_original_path_once · Uses: G001, S005

S007 · implies

Before

support index=1;time=0;state=3;aligned mass=1/4;event=[4]

After

event contains state=No;contribution=0

Conditions: none

Normalize the event as a set while retaining labels outside support.Each path contributes its original mass once;outside-support event labels add no invented mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: time_event_each_original_path_once · Uses: G001, S006

S008 · implies

Before

support index=2;time=0;state=4;aligned mass=1/2;event=[4]

After

event contains state=Yes;contribution=1/2

Conditions: none

Normalize the event as a set while retaining labels outside support.Each path contributes its original mass once;outside-support event labels add no invented mass.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: time_event_each_original_path_once · Uses: G001, S007

S009 · calculation

Before

complete time-event probability := sum(0, 0, 1/2)

After

complete time-event probability = 1/2

Conditions: none

Compute exactly with this step's original roles and operands,without floating approximation or reordering source data.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S008

S010 · implies

Before

requested time=0;raw event=[4];normalized event=[4]

After

event probability=1/2

Conditions: none

This is a time-event under the same complete path law,not a joint law reconstructed by assuming independence from marginals.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: time_event_not_joint_inference · Uses: G001, S009

Reverse checks

  • S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute complete time-event probability with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute whole path-law mass sum with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.

Result

(0, [4], 1/2)

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.

Source hashes and review receipts
  • input commit: 0f7be61e2c22317a4075561dc822c87d881a50db
  • original question SHA-256: 64948723de474cec64b97a848fbd2eeb2b7d0332336c685b3cab6eee1f8e3e55
  • candidate record SHA-256: ed7affe6fe6e195034179941daa78d42effb5e5e7827048d7732a092a95eb5cc
  • semantic review receipt SHA-256: b4c47938fd38085d44967226cfa8337d61334455472e7307c60d3a488cef598f
  • question-first witness SHA-256: 3c23baa97a5933bc07b44f2257017ef4e845bf1429bd6f5381410681c43b97e4
  • Lean: NOT_RUN · human review: NOT_PERFORMED
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