Question 11397: Two-Step Probability by Summing Every Intermediate State

Original question and givens

Use one fixed finite time-homogeneous transition table=[[11/12, 1/12], [23/25, 2/25]]. Rows denote the current state and columns the next state; row entries must be nonnegative and sum exactly to 1 before stepping. State order stays fixed. Use exact rational arithmetic, reduce fractions to positive denominators and omit /1 for integer outputs. No stationary, irreducibility, ergodicity or long-term convergence claim follows. Require a qualified kernel. from=1, to=0. Give (from,to,every P[from][middle]*P[middle][to] term in middle-state order,sum). This conditional transition entry does not require an initial law.

• G001 — Use one fixed finite time-homogeneous transition table=[[11/12, 1/12], [23/25, 2/25]]. Rows denote the current state and columns the next state; row entries must be nonnegative and sum exactly to 1 before stepping. State order stays fixed. Use exact rational arithmetic, reduce fractions to positive denominators and omit /1 for integer outputs. No stationary, irreducibility, ergodicity or long-term convergence claim follows. Require a qualified kernel. from=1, to=0. Give (from,to,every P[from][middle]*P[middle][to] term in middle-state order,sum). This conditional transition entry does not require an initial law.

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

• mko-finite-markov-chain

Step-by-step derivation

transition row0:raw rational pairs=[[11, 12], [1, 12]]

transition row0:normalized=[11/12, 1/12]

transition row0 total := sum(11/12, 1/12)

transition row0 total = 1

transition row0:weights=[11/12, 1/12];sum=1

nonnegative=Yes;total_one=Yes;qualified=Yes

transition row1:raw rational pairs=[[23, 25], [2, 25]]

transition row1:normalized=[23/25, 2/25]

transition row1 total := sum(23/25, 2/25)

transition row1 total = 1

transition row1:weights=[23/25, 2/25];sum=1

nonnegative=Yes;total_one=Yes;qualified=Yes

complete transition matrix=[[11/12, 1/12], [23/25, 2/25]];row sums=[1, 1]

nonnegative=Yes;row_stochastic=Yes;rows=current state, columns=next state

from=1;to=0;middle states=[0, 1]

two-step conditional entry=sum_k P[from][k]*P[k][to];no initial law needed

two-step middle0 term := mul(23/25, 11/12)

two-step middle0 term = 253/300

two-step middle1 term := mul(2/25, 23/25)

two-step middle1 term = 46/625

two-step probability := sum(253/300, 46/625)

two-step probability = 6877/7500

Reverse checks

• S011 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute two-step probability with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute two-step middle1 term with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute two-step middle0 term with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute transition row1 total with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
• S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute transition row0 total with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
• S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.

Result

(1, 0, [253/300, 46/625], 6877/7500)

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.