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Question 19316: Subtract the Target from the Expectation under That Same Parameter

On this page
  1. Original question and givens
  2. Definition and scope
  3. Step-by-step derivation
  4. Reverse checks
  5. Result
  6. This question review and source binding

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R0037-19316 · q-20261014-advance-20261106-r03-estimator-bias-0016

Original question and givens

Use indexed parameter slots Fin(2)={0,…,1}, complete exact rational law rows=[[1/25, 2/25, 3/25, 19/25], [2/29, 3/29, 4/29, 20/29]], and one parameter-independent total statistic T=[0, 1, 17, 18] in common outcome order. Every row is nonnegative and sums to1. The aligned parameter values are theta_values=[1/2, 16/18], and the target is g(theta)=theta. Keep all expectations and moments under the same selected law; zero-mass outcomes remain in the table but do not enlarge its positive-mass support. Selected parameter index=1. Give (parameter_index, theta_value, expectation, bias, certificate).

  • G001 — Use indexed parameter slots Fin(2)={0,…,1}, complete exact rational law rows=[[1/25, 2/25, 3/25, 19/25], [2/29, 3/29, 4/29, 20/29]], and one parameter-independent total statistic T=[0, 1, 17, 18] in common outcome order. Every row is nonnegative and sums to1. The aligned parameter values are theta_values=[1/2, 16/18], and the target is g(theta)=theta. Keep all expectations and moments under the same selected law; zero-mass outcomes remain in the table but do not enlarge its positive-mass support. Selected parameter index=1. Give (parameter_index, theta_value, expectation, bias, certificate).

Definition and scope

Use the original question domain, assumptions and cited MKO definitions. This item has second-context mathematical and bilingual review, with the model, answer and every arithmetic step independently recomputed from the original parameters; the source question remains a candidate.

Step-by-step derivation

S001 · implies

Before

source operation=bias-at-parameter;original snapshot and mathematics retained

After

explicit ordered source output fields=[parameter_index, theta_value, expectation, bias, certificate]

Conditions: none

Retain the historical interface marker in the original snapshot while listing ordered source fields here,without JavaScript or external lookup.Field names are not mathematical evidence,and No retains the operation's specific claim scope.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: source_ordered_interface_explicit_without_javascript · Uses: G001

S002 · calculation

Before

bias parameter0 full law mass := sum(1/25, 2/25, 3/25, 19/25)

After

bias parameter0 full law mass = 1

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S001

S003 · implies

Before

bias:original parameter SLOT=0;same outcome carrier Fin(4);ALL aligned law masses=[1/25, 2/25, 3/25, 19/25]

After

full sum=1;all masses nonnegative=Yes;qualified probability law;zero-mass outcomes retained

Conditions: none

Each complete parameter law must separately be nonnegative and total1.Keep zero-mass outcomes in the original table;do not normalize across parameter rows to invent a prior or posterior.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: finite_statistical_full_law_not_partial_or_prior · Uses: G001, S002

S004 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 full law mass := sum(2/29, 3/29, 4/29, 20/29)

After

bias parameter1 full law mass = 1

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S003

S005 · implies

Before

bias:original parameter SLOT=1;same outcome carrier Fin(4);ALL aligned law masses=[2/29, 3/29, 4/29, 20/29]

After

full sum=1;all masses nonnegative=Yes;qualified probability law;zero-mass outcomes retained

Conditions: none

Each complete parameter law must separately be nonnegative and total1.Keep zero-mass outcomes in the original table;do not normalize across parameter rows to invent a prior or posterior.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: finite_statistical_full_law_not_partial_or_prior · Uses: G001, S004

S006 · implies

Before

bias:parameter SLOT carrier Fin(2);common outcome carrier Fin(4);ONE total original statistic array=[0, 1, 17, 18]

After

T takes only the observation index,not the unknown parameter;SAME function at all parameter slots;its sampling law may still vary with the slot

Conditions: none

Functional parameter-independence is different from a parameter-free distribution of T(X).Use the same original statistic value at every outcome rather than changing T between laws.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: finite_statistic_definition_not_distribution_free · Uses: G001, S005

S007 · implies

Before

original parameter SLOT order0..1;aligned exact theta_values=[1/2, 8/9]

After

declared target g(theta)=theta;indices are not targets;claims range over THIS supplied finite parameter model only

Conditions: none

Keep target values separate from parameter indices;theta values need not be distinct.No unprovided continuous parameter space,prior or sequence of statistics is supplied,so a universal claim within this finite model is not extended beyond it.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: bias_declared_target_and_finite_parameter_scope · Uses: G001, S006

S008 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic := mul(2/29, 0)

After

bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic = 0

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S007

S009 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic := mul(3/29, 1)

After

bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic = 3/29

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S008

S010 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic := mul(4/29, 17)

After

bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic = 68/29

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S009

S011 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic := mul(20/29, 18)

After

bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic = 360/29

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S010

S012 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 same-law expectation := sum(0, 3/29, 68/29, 360/29)

After

bias parameter1 same-law expectation = 431/29

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S011

S013 · calculation

Before

bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target := sub(431/29, 8/9)

After

bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target = 3647/261

Conditions: none

Substitute original roles and established intermediates exactly,retaining parameter,outcome,target and denominator roles without replacing the claim.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: exact_rational_arithmetic · Uses: G001, S012

S014 · implies

Before

fixed original parameter SLOT=1;actual aligned theta VALUE=8/9;SAME complete law=[2/29, 3/29, 4/29, 20/29];same statistic=[0, 1, 17, 18];weighted terms=[0, 3/29, 68/29, 360/29]

After

E_at_slot[T]=431/29;Bias=E_at_slot[T]-ACTUAL theta value=3647/261

Conditions: none

The target g(theta)=theta is now declared.Subtract the aligned theta_values entry,not its slot index or one observed estimate,and use no other parameter's law.

Step identifiers and dependencies

Rule: bias_same_law_expectation_minus_target_not_index · Uses: G001, S013

Reverse checks

  • S014 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S013 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S012 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 same-law expectation with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S011 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S010 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S009 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S008 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S007 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S006 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S005 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S004 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter1 full law mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S003 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.
  • S002 · premise_and_result_audit — Recompute bias parameter0 full law mass with exact rational arithmetic, not rounded decimals.
  • S001 · premise_and_result_audit — Check against the original data and this step's premises; a one-way implication is not an equivalence.

Result

(1, 8/9, 431/29, 3647/261, expectation_from_same_theta_sampling_distribution)

The full substitutions and premise checks give the original answer; source identity,format and status are unchanged.

This question review and source binding

Review date: 2026-10-26

Original questions, answers, step expressions, numeric ASTs and historical records are retained. Source candidate labels remain historical and are not overwritten as formal proof.

Source hashes and review receipts
  • input commit: 0f7be61e2c22317a4075561dc822c87d881a50db
  • original question SHA-256: 816dff555e3a6f85167b437baa7a314e2aceaf4e9a4a6af45a5ce41b4b9974bb
  • candidate record SHA-256: bf7eba9871e02a80c2bff6f764ee64fcc0b35760187492610698f9f87af3f9b7
  • semantic review receipt SHA-256: 065507b602ceee60cf47a700d387a51940e0c6724c35a3336a7a7948a199ed80
  • question-first witness SHA-256: 7203f33b030792559673b0fee520a8c0e70903c4dd970b35293aa40852f333d6
  • Lean: NOT_RUN · human review: NOT_PERFORMED
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