第 19339 題：估計量偏誤

原題與已知條件

共同有限樣本空間、逐theta sampling law與同一total estimator。操作=bias-family-readback；資料={"theta_values":[[1,2],[14,16]],"laws":[[[1,23],[2,23],[3,23],[17,23]],[[2,27],[3,27],[4,27],[18,27]]],"statistic":[0,1,15,16]}。請依 exact_ordered_tuple_declared_by_interface 欄序回答。

• G001 — 共同有限樣本空間、逐theta sampling law與同一total estimator。操作=bias-family-readback；資料={"theta_values":[[1,2],[14,16]],"laws":[[[1,23],[2,23],[3,23],[17,23]],[[2,27],[3,27],[4,27],[18,27]]],"statistic":[0,1,15,16]}。請依 exact_ordered_tuple_declared_by_interface 欄序回答。

定義與適用範圍

沿用原題明示的論域、假設與來源 MKO 定義。本題已完成第二對話數理與中英語義覆核，並由原始參數逐題獨立重算模型、答案與每個算術步驟；原題仍為 candidate。

• mko-estimator-bias

逐步推導

source operation=bias-family-readback;original snapshot and mathematics retained

explicit ordered source output fields=[parameter_bias_rows, boundary]

bias parameter0 full law mass := sum(1/23, 2/23, 3/23, 17/23)

bias parameter0 full law mass = 1

bias:original parameter SLOT=0;same outcome carrier Fin(4);ALL aligned law masses=[1/23, 2/23, 3/23, 17/23]

full sum=1;all masses nonnegative=是;qualified probability law;zero-mass outcomes retained

bias parameter1 full law mass := sum(2/27, 1/9, 4/27, 2/3)

bias parameter1 full law mass = 1

bias:original parameter SLOT=1;same outcome carrier Fin(4);ALL aligned law masses=[2/27, 1/9, 4/27, 2/3]

full sum=1;all masses nonnegative=是;qualified probability law;zero-mass outcomes retained

bias:parameter SLOT carrier Fin(2);common outcome carrier Fin(4);ONE total original statistic array=[0, 1, 15, 16]

T takes only the observation index,not the unknown parameter;SAME function at all parameter slots;its sampling law may still vary with the slot

original parameter SLOT order0..1;aligned exact theta_values=[1/2, 7/8]

declared target g(theta)=theta;indices are not targets;claims range over THIS supplied finite parameter model only

bias parameter0 original outcome0 weighted statistic := mul(1/23, 0)

bias parameter0 original outcome0 weighted statistic = 0

bias parameter0 original outcome1 weighted statistic := mul(2/23, 1)

bias parameter0 original outcome1 weighted statistic = 2/23

bias parameter0 original outcome2 weighted statistic := mul(3/23, 15)

bias parameter0 original outcome2 weighted statistic = 45/23

bias parameter0 original outcome3 weighted statistic := mul(17/23, 16)

bias parameter0 original outcome3 weighted statistic = 272/23

bias parameter0 same-law expectation := sum(0, 2/23, 45/23, 272/23)

bias parameter0 same-law expectation = 319/23

bias parameter0 expectation minus actual target := sub(319/23, 1/2)

bias parameter0 expectation minus actual target = 615/46

fixed original parameter SLOT=0;actual aligned theta VALUE=1/2;SAME complete law=[1/23, 2/23, 3/23, 17/23];same statistic=[0, 1, 15, 16];weighted terms=[0, 2/23, 45/23, 272/23]

E_at_slot[T]=319/23;Bias=E_at_slot[T]-ACTUAL theta value=615/46

bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic := mul(2/27, 0)

bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic = 0

bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic := mul(1/9, 1)

bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic = 1/9

bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic := mul(4/27, 15)

bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic = 20/9

bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic := mul(2/3, 16)

bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic = 32/3

bias parameter1 same-law expectation := sum(0, 1/9, 20/9, 32/3)

bias parameter1 same-law expectation = 13

bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target := sub(13, 7/8)

bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target = 97/8

fixed original parameter SLOT=1;actual aligned theta VALUE=7/8;SAME complete law=[2/27, 1/9, 4/27, 2/3];same statistic=[0, 1, 15, 16];weighted terms=[0, 1/9, 20/9, 32/3]

E_at_slot[T]=13;Bias=E_at_slot[T]-ACTUAL theta value=97/8

ALL fixed-parameter target/expectation/bias rows=[[0, 1/2, 319/23, 615/46], [1, 7/8, 13, 97/8]]

Bias is this complete indexed family;no averaging over parameters and no prior inferred

逐步反向核對

• S022 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S021 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S020 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 expectation minus actual target，不以小數近似替代。
• S019 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 same-law expectation，不以小數近似替代。
• S018 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 original outcome3 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S017 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 original outcome2 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S016 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 original outcome1 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S015 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 original outcome0 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S014 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S013 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 expectation minus actual target，不以小數近似替代。
• S012 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 same-law expectation，不以小數近似替代。
• S011 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 original outcome3 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S010 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 original outcome2 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S009 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 original outcome1 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S008 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 original outcome0 weighted statistic，不以小數近似替代。
• S007 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S006 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S005 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S004 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter1 full law mass，不以小數近似替代。
• S003 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。
• S002 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 bias parameter0 full law mass，不以小數近似替代。
• S001 · premise_and_result_audit — 回到原始資料與本步條件核對，不把單向推論誤稱等價。

結論

([[0, 1/2, 319/23, 615/46], [1, 7/8, 13, 97/8]], bias_is_parameter_indexed_family)

依上列完整代值及條件核對得到原題答案；原題編號、格式與狀態保持不變。

本題覆核與來源綁定

覆核日期：2026-10-26

原題、答案、步驟表達式、數值 AST 與既有歷史保持原樣；原來的候選狀態屬於來源歷史，不覆寫為形式化證明。