第 33781 題：Martingale深度

原題與已知條件

同一有限機率空間與filtration的精確模型。操作=martdeep-fair-partial-sum；資料={"steps":6,"scale":1}。請依 [steps,scale,support,multiplicities,total_paths,martingale,certificate] 欄序回答。

• G001 — 同一有限機率空間與filtration的精確模型。操作=martdeep-fair-partial-sum；資料={"steps":6,"scale":1}。請依 [steps,scale,support,multiplicities,total_paths,martingale,certificate] 欄序回答。

定義與適用範圍

沿用原題明示的論域、假設與來源 MKO 定義。本題已完成第二對話數理與中英語義覆核，並由原始參數逐題獨立重算模型、答案與每個算術步驟；原題仍為 candidate。

• mko-martingale

逐步推導

source roles = [qf-mod31-martdeep-fair-partial-sum, [domain, operation, scale, steps]]

derived = [martdeep-fair-partial-sum, Exact_finite_martingale_construction]

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=0 := mul(2, 0)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=0 = 0

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=0 := sub(0, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=0 = -6

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=0 := mul(1, -6)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=0 = -6

source roles = [6, 1, 0]

derived = [-6, 1]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=1 := mul(1, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=1 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=1 := div(6, 1)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=1 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=1 := mul(2, 1)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=1 = 2

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=1 := sub(2, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=1 = -4

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=1 := mul(1, -4)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=1 = -4

source roles = [6, 1, 1]

derived = [-4, 6]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=2 := mul(6, 5)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=2 = 30

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=2 := div(30, 2)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=2 = 15

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=2 := mul(2, 2)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=2 = 4

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=2 := sub(4, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=2 = -2

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=2 := mul(1, -2)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=2 = -2

source roles = [6, 1, 2]

derived = [-2, 15]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=3 := mul(15, 4)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=3 = 60

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=3 := div(60, 3)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=3 = 20

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=3 := mul(2, 3)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=3 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=3 := sub(6, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=3 = 0

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=3 := mul(1, 0)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=3 = 0

source roles = [6, 1, 3]

derived = [0, 20]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=4 := mul(20, 3)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=4 = 60

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=4 := div(60, 4)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=4 = 15

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=4 := mul(2, 4)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=4 = 8

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=4 := sub(8, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=4 = 2

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=4 := mul(1, 2)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=4 = 2

source roles = [6, 1, 4]

derived = [2, 15]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=5 := mul(15, 2)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=5 = 30

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=5 := div(30, 5)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=5 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=5 := mul(2, 5)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=5 = 10

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=5 := sub(10, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=5 = 4

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=5 := mul(1, 4)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=5 = 4

source roles = [6, 1, 5]

derived = [4, 6]

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=6 := mul(6, 1)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=6 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=6 := div(6, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=6 = 1

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=6 := mul(2, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=6 = 12

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=6 := sub(12, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=6 = 6

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=6 := mul(1, 6)

Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=6 = 6

source roles = [6, 1, 6]

derived = [6, 1]

Fair ORIGINAL all binomial multiplicities := sum(1, 6, 15, 20, 15, 6, 1)

Fair ORIGINAL all binomial multiplicities = 64

source roles = [6, 1, 64]

derived = [[time=0, prefixes=1, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0], [time=1, prefixes=2, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0], [time=2, prefixes=4, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0], [time=3, prefixes=8, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0], [time=4, prefixes=16, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0], [time=5, prefixes=32, next_signs=+s,-s equiprobable, conditional_increment_mean=0]]

逐步反向核對

• S043 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S042 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL all binomial multiplicities，不以小數近似替代。
• S041 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S040 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=6，不以小數近似替代。
• S039 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=6，不以小數近似替代。
• S038 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=6，不以小數近似替代。
• S037 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=6，不以小數近似替代。
• S036 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=6，不以小數近似替代。
• S035 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S034 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=5，不以小數近似替代。
• S033 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=5，不以小數近似替代。
• S032 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=5，不以小數近似替代。
• S031 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=5，不以小數近似替代。
• S030 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=5，不以小數近似替代。
• S029 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S028 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=4，不以小數近似替代。
• S027 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=4，不以小數近似替代。
• S026 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=4，不以小數近似替代。
• S025 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=4，不以小數近似替代。
• S024 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=4，不以小數近似替代。
• S023 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S022 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=3，不以小數近似替代。
• S021 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=3，不以小數近似替代。
• S020 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=3，不以小數近似替代。
• S019 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=3，不以小數近似替代。
• S018 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=3，不以小數近似替代。
• S017 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S016 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=2，不以小數近似替代。
• S015 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=2，不以小數近似替代。
• S014 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=2，不以小數近似替代。
• S013 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=2，不以小數近似替代。
• S012 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=2，不以小數近似替代。
• S011 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S010 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=1，不以小數近似替代。
• S009 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=1，不以小數近似替代。
• S008 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=1，不以小數近似替代。
• S007 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial recurrence division k=1，不以小數近似替代。
• S006 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL binomial previous times remaining k=1，不以小數近似替代。
• S005 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。
• S004 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL scale times signed count k=0，不以小數近似替代。
• S003 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL positive minus negative count k=0，不以小數近似替代。
• S002 · premise_and_result_audit — 以精確有理數重算 Fair ORIGINAL two positive signs k=0，不以小數近似替代。
• S001 · premise_and_result_audit — 反向核對本步原始角色、完整前提與欄序；只接受這些條件下的結論，不把單向結論還原為唯一前提，也不把有限核對稱一般形式證明。

結論

(6, 1, [-6, -4, -2, 0, 2, 4, 6], [1, 6, 15, 20, 15, 6, 1], 2^6, 是, independent_fair_signed_increments_have_conditional_mean_zero)

依上列完整代值及條件核對得到原題答案；原題編號、格式與狀態保持不變。

本題覆核與來源綁定

覆核日期：2026-10-26

原題、答案、步驟表達式、數值 AST 與既有歷史保持原樣；原來的候選狀態屬於來源歷史，不覆寫為形式化證明。